Compass’ Bowers Group Vice President Brett Rubin speaks to Fox News Digital about how the Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time in three years could lead to a frozen real estate market.
American homeowners expecting peak-market valuations are confronting a changing real estate landscape following the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision.
Rising borrowing costs are shrinking the pool of qualified buyers, signaling a potential wave of price reductions for sellers seeking to close deals before year-end, real estate insiders told Fox News Digital.
“Sellers have… very high expectations. And it takes a while for sellers’ expectations to come down. And that’s the reality,” DaGrosa Capital Partners founder and chairman Joe DaGrosa told Fox News Digital. “With respect to buyers, I think a lot of people are going to have to wait it out. And wait and see a better situation on the mortgage front… [there’s] gonna be some pressure. So I think it’s gonna be tough on buyers and it’s going to be tough on sellers.”
“Fewer buyers equals fewer opportunities to sell the home, less competitive environment. And so as a result, we’re seeing a lot of sellers struggling to sell their homes in a market that otherwise would be a pretty strong market,” Bowers Group Vice President at Compass Brett Rubin also said.
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“And with that, we’re starting to see homes sitting on the market a little bit longer, a lot more price reductions, hesitant buyers kind of sitting on their sidelines. And so this rate hike definitely has implications on both sides of the spectrum.”
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Federal Reserve policymakers voted 12-0 on Wednesday to raise the target range for the federal funds rate from 3.5%-3.75% to 3.75%-4%. The 25-basis-point increase marked the first interest rate hike since July 2023 and came after the Fed left rates unchanged at its first five meetings this year.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance increased to 7.14% from 6.87% a week earlier, while the average 15-year fixed refinance rate was 6.30% Thursday, according to the Mortgage Research Center.
“The retail market sellers are going to realize that they’ve probably experienced 40%, 50% appreciation of their property values over the past 8 to 10 years… I think they’re going to have to recognize that they’re going to take a little bit of a hit if they want to sell,” DaGrosa said. “And homebuilder sentiment is at its lowest in the past 12 months. It may get worse before it gets better. So you’re seeing a double whammy for homebuilds.”
“Some folks who need to sell their homes, they’re full steam ahead as well, and they’re just going to have to weather the storm for better or for worse,” Rubin added. “Ultimately, if they need to reduce the price, that might be in the cards for them.”
President Donald Trump calls for Federal Reserve independence while arguing that interest rates are too high. His comments follow the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in three years, which Fed Chair Kevin Warsh defends.
“I can see there being a correlation between, you know, rates increasing and home values decreasing. But I think it needs to be a really consistent increase over an extended period of time to really affect the market in that way,” Rubin continued.
Millions of American homeowners remain reluctant to move because they hold mortgage rates below 4%, contributing to the so-called mortgage-rate lock-in effect. Sellers who need to move because of job relocations or life changes can face reluctant buyers and higher borrowing costs, the experts said.
“I think it’s going to be a buyer’s market in a few months, and if I were a buyer, I’d be in no rush to buy because I think there’ll be relief from sellers. But for now, we’re going to have a frozen market. I’ve seen this multiple times over the past 40 years,” DaGrosa said.
“We use the term ‘golden handcuffs.’ The folks who have interest rates in the 3%, 4% range, they’re not as incentivized to make that move and take on a larger mortgage payment with a higher interest rate. And so they’re definitely going to be reconsidering that move if it’s not something that’s absolutely imperative,” Rubin explained. “So while there’s some truth to that, in the sense that folks who are comfortable are probably not going to move just because they feel like moving, there’s always going to be folks who are buying and selling out of necessity. And unfortunately for those folks, they’re going to have to weather the storm, whether they are encouraged by the rate environment or not.”
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As market inventory sits and seasonal slowdowns compound high interest rates, DaGrosa and Rubin anticipate a leverage shift. Sellers who delay price concessions may find themselves competing for a diminishing pool of qualified buyers, signaling that patient buyers may soon hold the bargaining power in upcoming sales cycles.
“For the average American, my view is there are going to be good deals coming over time,” DaGrosa noted.
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“I’m feeling like there will be a slowdown,” Rubin admitted. “So while we might not immediately realize what those effects are looking like at the moment, the spring market will certainly be more telling.”
“It’s the Wild West in real estate, and that’s just sort of the norm, unfortunately,” he added. “The sooner that folks realize that there is no kind of standard market anymore, the sooner that they’re going to realize that this is what it is.”
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FOX Business’ Eric Revell contributed to this report.
