Wednesday, September 23, 2026

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Stock Market Today Live, Sept 22: Sensex falls 300 points, Nifty below 23,350 despite positive global cues


Jefferies on Adani Enterprises

Buy, TP ₹3830

Forum takeaways

Mgmt highlighted AEL’s incubation-to-value-unlocking model, with Airports and Data Centers emerging as key growth pillars.

Airports are nearing an earnings inflection, driven by Navi Mumbai ramp-up, higher nonaero monetisation and city-side development, while AI is expanding the opportunity for Adani ConneX. Recent capital raises leave AEL well positioned to fund its next growth phase.

*Jefferies on JSW Cement*

Buy, TP ₹150

Forum takeaways

Mgmt reiterated its ambitious capacity expansion plan from 24MTPA to 68MTPA, supported by ample limestone reserves & BS discipline.

GGBS (~40% of vols) continues to provide earnings stability.

North ops are scaling up rapidly and targeting EBITDA breakeven by Sep-26.

Margin improvement is expected to be driven by cost optimisation.

Mgmt also reflected on strong UAE market trends.

*Jefferies on Polycab*

Buy TP ₹11100

Power is est. 40-45% of its C&W demand; Power generation, renewable energy, T&D network are key drivers.

While demand is healthy, Q2-Q3FY26 volume base of LY is high.

At 5-7% industry NPM, competition lowering prices may not be sustainable in medium term

Cables require certifications for usage, durability (longer gestation).

Amid Ultravolt launch, Polycab is down ~17% from Jun26-peak, now at ~35x 1Y fwd PE,-7% below hist 5-Y avg

*Jefferies on Blue Star*

Hold, TP ₹1635

Rising input costs continue to exert margin pressure in Q2 as well (commodities, weak INR).

But margin is est to recover in H2, led by potential price hikes and cost-cutting.

SeptQ LY is a weak base (GST led demand deferment)

Est BLSTR’s DC biz to contribute ~20% of sales by FY29e vs ~10% in FY27e.

At 47x 1Y fwd PE, it trades +7% above hist 5Y avg PE.

*Jefferies on ITC Hotels*

Buy, TP Rs 210

Forum takeaways

Co is boosting its asset-light mix, targeting 2/3 managed keys (vs ~60% today) as inventory grows from ~14,300 to ~22,000, supporting margin and ROCE expansion.

Op metrics at Sri Lanka property continue to improve, aiding consolidated ROCE.

Mgmt expects sustained rev performance, supported by strong domestic leisure demand & favourable supply-demand dynamics, particularly in supply-constrained metro markets.

Jefferies on Leela Hotels

Buy, TP Rs 675

Forum takeaways

Mgmt remains constructive on India’s luxury hospitality, driven by domestic tourism more than offsetting FTAs & demand exceeding supply growth.

Leela’s ~1,100-key announced pipeline is skewed to owned assets, with multiple attractive markets still untapped.

Non-room revenues, club & wellness are emerging growth drivers.

Mgmt reiterated confidence in its ₹20bn FY30 EBITDA ambition (implies 25%+ CAGR over FY26-FY30e).

CLSA on Juniper Hotels

O-P, TP ₹430

Juniper Hotels is entering its next leg of growth as an owner and developer of big-box luxury assets.

It is doubling its operational portfolio from 1,895 keys in FY26 to 3,941 keys (including 600 brownfield) by FY31, mainly in the luxury and upper upscale segments.

With its capacity expansion and supported by industry tailwinds and ARR gap vs. peers, estimate a revenue/PAT Cagr of 15%/30% over FY26-29

Lower 27CL revenue to reflect delayed hotel openings

UBS on GAIL

Buy, TP raised to ₹215

Transmission momentum & commodity cycle to drive earnings upgrade

Expect next round of consensus earnings upgrades to be led by transmission, as resilient domestic gas demand and healthy LNG arrivals support higher pipeline volume in upcoming quarters

Forecast transmission to contribute 45%/52% of stand-alone segment EBITDA in FY27/FY28, reinforcing its position as key driver of GAIL’s increasingly structural earnings profile

Its commodity businesses could provide additional upside, as subdued Henry Hub prices keep petchem feedstock cost lower, while higher crude oil prices drive strong margins for gas

trading, petchem and LPG businesses

Raise FY27E/FY28E consolidated EBITDA 16%/3%.

Still value GAIL at 12.0x FY28E consolidated PE, implying 10.2x EV/EBITDA for transmission business

UBS on Meesho

Buy, TP Raised to ₹260

Raise FY29-31 NMV estimates by 7-18%, with a similar increase in contribution profit estimates and a 20-40% increase in EBITDA estimates.

Higher NMV forecasts reflect continued flywheel from sellers (+81% YoY to 1.04mn in Q1FY27), buyers (+29% YoY to 274mn), coupled with rapid expansion in

SKUs and logistics partners

Larger increase in EBITDA reflects a stronger mediumterm margin trajectory, driven by improving ads monetisation and logistics economics

Kotak Inst Eqt on Indo MIM

Initiate Reduce TP ₹1110

INDO-MIM’s diversified precision manufacturing platform across MIM, casting and machining is well positioned to benefit from aerospace, defense and electronics localization

MIM leadership, consumer electronics growth and rising aerospace content support long-term growth, while strong cash generation and available capacity provide room for expansion.

Kotak Inst Eqt on Mankind Pharma

Upgrade to Buy, TP ₹3000

After a prolonged restructuring impact, Mankind’s base domestic business is finally showing tangible signs of recovery.

Following 12.7% yoy secondary sales growth in 1QFY27, there has been a further uptick in July/August with Mankind reporting 14.6% yoy growth, outpacing the IPM by 120 bps.

Market shares of most key ex-BSV and BSV brands have improved

With field force stability and a step-up in R&D, new launches, along with volumes, should pick up too

Expect Mankind to report a robust ~23% EPS CAGR over FY2026-29E.

HSBC on Lupin

Buy, TP cut to ₹2500 from ₹2770

Current price overemphasizes known concentration risk while undermining the lineup of US launches

After a base reset for US sales in FY27, think new launches can sustain US sales of cUSD1.2bn in FY27-29e

Traction continues for India and other ex-US segments

*CITI on Kotak Bk*

Buy, TP Rs 465

Management meet takeaways

[1] KMIL merger (2% of loans) and FCNR-B deposit mobilization will expand the balance sheet;

[2]FCNR-B utilization – Active liability optimization via repayment of high-cost wholesale deposits/borrowings; near-term surplus parked in treasury investments and short-term lending; over coming quarters to be efficiently deployed into higher-yielding, risk-adjusted assets;

[3] Asset quality remains reassuring, with no stress evident in retail or SME portfolios; personal loan stress has normalized; only transient residual stress left in retail CV/CE;

[4] Growth engines remain resilient, with SME expanding over 20%, MFI on track, and credit cards returning to positive growth, complemented by a high-yielding Rs100bn real estate book from the KMIL merger and steady LAP growth.

*CLSA on IT*

Indian IT co management demand commentary going into the silent 2Q27 period remains cautious at best.

Due to weak macro fundamentals impacted by geopolitics, higher rates and inflation, discretionary demand remains muted implying more EPS downside risk particularly for INFY and Wipro. TCS too maintained a cautious stance while HCL’s demand commentary remained the most resilient.

Order books and employee headcounts will remain largely stable negating extreme negative repercussions of AI rollouts on renewed deals and IT jobs

BFSI vertical, thankfully, continues to see resilient demand despite recent trading and IB revenue warnings by BoFA and FICC revenue from GS

Maintain HLD on TCS, INFY and HCL and U-PF rating on Wipro with more downside risk to FY27CL EPS.

*GS on Sansera*

Buy, TP Raised to Rs 4990 from Rs4500

Global semiconductor capital equipment manufacturers, Applied Materials & LAM Research announced US$5bn and US$1.2bn investments

in India respectively to develop local supplier ecosystems & expand their R&D presence in India

View both entities as potential longer term growth contributors to Sansera’s higher margin ADS component supply business, especially in context of Sansera’s recent large

semiconductor order win from an existing customer to tune of US$180mn announced in Aug 2026

Increases FY29E EPS, to partially factor in upside potential from this incremental development

*MS on Coal India*

Upgrade to OW, TP Raised to Rs 480

Accelerating thermal power demand, sharply de-stocked plant inventories, & rising global thermal coal prices are set up for volume and e-auction premium expansion

These factors should drive strong earnings upgrades & in turn, stock performance over next few months

Revise volumes and e-auction premium estimates, driving a 20% upgrade to F27 EPS estimate.

At 6.6x one year forward P/E, stock is trading around long-term averages

Expect this multiple to sustain on back of strong earnings upgrades

*Macquarie on GMR Airports*

O-P TP Rs 120

Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT) has allowed DIAL’s appeal against AERA’s 4th Control Period tariff order, delivering a favourable outcome across key tariff building blocks.

It also directed AERA to implement prior TDSAT rulings unless stayed by the Supreme Court (SC), reinforcing regulatory certainty.

While see judgment as materially positive for DIAL’s cash flows and tariff recovery framework, expect AERA to challenge ruling before SC.

*Bernstein on NTPC Green*

Upgrade to Market-perform from Underperform; TP at Rs 85 

Execution misses priced-in 

See low cost of debt & grid connectivity a strength 

Big aspirations backed by parent capital

*Bofa on Physicswallah*

Recommendation: Underperform, Target: ₹110

Leading online franchise; Valuation ahead of fundamentals 

All eyes on offline execution; AI/K12 optionality & risks 

Full marks to online, butterfly effect in offline 

See downside risks to consensus

*CLSA on LG India*

Recommendation: Outperform, Target: ₹1865

Broad based growth guidance reiterated 

Premiumisation continues; strong guidance maintained 

Higher export profitability could emerge as a meaningful driver of both earnings and margin accretion

*Jefferies on TBO Tek*

Recommendation: Buy, Target: ₹1905

Growth outlook remains robust despite near term disruption 

Navigating Middle East disruption well 

Oplev to drive faster earnings growth 

Classic acquisition opens up a larger luxury travel opportunity 

AI to augment, not replace, the travel-agent model 

Wholesale business provides a stable growth foundation

*JPMorgan on L&T*

Recommendation: Overweight, Target: ₹5060

Gearing For Growth

Execution in the Middle East continues without any major disruptions 

Customers are by and large accommodating cost increases due to the impact of the conflict 

L&T continues to focus on deepening its strong relationships with customers through this turbulent period 

In India, public capex should pick up after a period of consolidation 

Private corporate capex has achieved traction, led by large order wins in thermal power 

Plans to enter into new areas of data centers, green energy and electronic manufacturing and aims to double defense revenue by 2031 

L&T is being positioned for mid-teens growth with healthy RoE in traditional and emerging areas 

Valuation at <25x P/E is attractive and L&T remains preferred pick

*Morgan Stanley on Cement* 

Cement – renewed risks of cost inflation 

With Middle East conflict ongoing, we see renewed risk of a higher for longer cost cycle 

Compounding the concerns is below normal monsoon which could weigh on rural demand 

Companies might see Rs 150-200/tonne increase in cost and will require Rs 10-15/bag price hike

*Morgan Stanley on India Consumer* 

Staples: YoY revenue growth momentum will likely remain strong across most players 

Believe the market will focus on 2-year CAGR volume growth trends, and EBITDA growth given inflationary pressures 

Prefer names with better medium-term growth visibility, such as Marico and Tata Consumer 

With growth momentum likely to continue, see potential for near-term outperformance from Nestle 

Discretionary & Retail: Most players could see some impact from a shift in the festive calendar 

Expect demand momentum to remain broadly stable 

Topline growth momentum will remain the key driver for stock performance 

Titan remains preferred pick 

In the near term, a recovery in topline growth should drive stock outperformance for Page 

Paints: Believe the higher near-term topline growth trend is already in the price, but commodity volatility will add to headwinds 

Prefer to avoid Paint stocks

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